The sweetener market in the European Union: Analysis and forecast to 2005/06

The structure of the sweetener market in the European Union has changed considerably in the last ten years. Overall, sugar sales have increased slightly, owing to greater use in the food industry. Household consumption, on the other hand, has clearly declined. Besides isoglucose, inulin syrup, another sweetener that can replace sugar in some applications, has been included since 1994 in the sugar market regime. Per capita sweetener consumption is currently growing at a rate of 4% per year. Two scenarios with different growth rates are projected up to the year 2000/01 for the development of the individual components of the sweetener market and the consequences for sugar sales are presented. Several institutions have in recent years demanded the abolition of production quotas in the sugar market. Another part of this paper examines the consequences this could have for sugar sales and gives a market forecast to the year 2005/06, again applying different growth rates for household and food industry sales. Depending on the weight of the food industry and therewith on the possibilities of replacing sugar by isoglucose and inulin syrup, there are differences in the impact on sugar sales in the various EU member countries. For the European Union as a whole, the abolition of production quotas would be likely to produce in 2005/06 a decline in sugar sales by about 35%.